Democrats are likely to win control of the House in the 2026 election, while their chances for the Senate are considered at least 50/50. A Democratic Congress would act as a restraining influence on Trump.
The outlook has shifted in favor of Democrats over the past month. Despite an aggressive counterattack from Republicans and hundreds of millions spent on ads, including a record-setting amount from Elon Musk, forecasters now give Democrats a stronger position than they did one month ago.
Updated Race Ratings
Key races have seen late changes in their ratings. Larry Sabato’s ratings now show Maine, Ohio, and Texas Senate races as leaning Democratic. In another update, the Cook Political Report moved Michigan to Lean Democratic at 8 PM Eastern Time on Monday night. This change significantly boosts Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate.
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These forecasts rely on data from two prominent political websites, Cook and Sabato. Averaging their predictions and assuming toss-up races split evenly points to Democrats securing a 15-20 seat majority in the House. For the Senate, they would need to flip enough seats to reach 51-52, a more plausible goal if they hold Michigan.
The House Outlook
A month ago, Sabato saw the House leaning Democratic, requiring them to win only a quarter of toss-up races to gain control. Cook predicted they would need to win about half. Both scenarios were risky due to the reliance on close races.
Today, the forecast is clearer. Sabato and Cook agree that Democrats would maintain a small House majority even if they lose all toss-up races. Winning half of those toss-ups would expand their majority to 10-15 seats. Winning all toss-ups could give them roughly a 25-seat majority.
The Senate Battle
The Senate picture has also evolved. North Carolina was previously seen as leaning Democratic, a likely pickup for the party. A key difference between the forecasters was that Cook viewed Michigan and New Hampshire as toss-ups, while Sabato leaned Democratic. Both agreed that holding those states would require winning about half of Republican-held toss-ups.
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Cook now aligns with Sabato, seeing Minnesota and New Hampshire as leaning Democratic. Kansas has also been added to the toss-up list. Sabato previously saw a clearer path for Democrats, needing to win only two of five toss-up races. With the latest updates, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and Maine all lean Democratic, suggesting a strong path to Senate control.
Cook’s current count requires Democrats to hold Michigan and win three of six Republican-held toss-up seats, or flip one lean-Republican state and two toss-ups. As of 9:45 AM California time, this prediction remains unchanged.
It is notable that states like Texas, Kansas, and Iowa are now considered toss-ups or leaning Democratic. This shift could indicate a major polling error or a deeper political realignment. The results will be clear on election day.